Clinton wins in perception but still loses in delegate numbers…
THE MATH ONLY GETS GLOOMIER FOR CLINTON—EVEN AFTER A BIG PENNSYLVANIA WIN.
By Chris Wilson and Chadwick Matlin
Updated Wednesday, April 23, 2008, at 1:03 AM ET
Hillary Clinton’s 10-point victory in Pennsylvania awards her a net gain of about 16 pledged delegates, based on projections from the popular vote. Because Pennsylvania awards about two-thirds of its delegates by district, we won’t have a precise figure until later this week.
Coming into today, the odds that Clinton would catch Obama in pledged delegates were very small. Now they’re zero. Before Pennsylvania, Clinton needed to win each remaining primary with 65 percent of the vote to close the gap. Even though she won Pennsylvania, that figure is now just over 68 percent. (Try it on the calculator below by dragging the red bar at the top to the right.) Furthermore, the state with the most remaining delegates is North Carolina, where Obama leads in the polls by about 20 points. Assuming he nets at least 20 more of the state’s 115 delegates, Clinton needs 80 percent of the vote in each of the other eight remaining primaries to catch up.